Brand search is delivering 16.5× ROAS — well above targets, suggesting brand awareness built by Meta upper-funnel is converting efficiently here. The remarketing campaign (cart abandonment) shows 10.09% CVR, the highest across all campaigns, pointing to a strong mid-funnel gap that Meta Ads and email could plug before relying on paid remarketing. Non-brand search keywords like "vintage clothing supplier" show a $45 CPA vs $9 for brand terms — consider shifting budget to Shopping where CPCs are lower and intent is comparable.

The 1% LTV Lookalike delivers a 6.8× ROAS — the strongest paid prospecting ROAS on platform — validating that seeding lookalike audiences from your RFM Champion segment dramatically improves targeting efficiency. The IG Reels Awareness campaign shows a low direct ROAS (2.9×) but an 81% assist conversion rate — meaning 81% of its attributed conversions were later completed through Google or retargeting. This is a classic assist channel being penalized by last-click. Under data-driven attribution, this campaign's contribution nearly doubles. The "Vintage Haul UGC" format outperforms every static creative on CTR and ROAS — a signal to invest more in creator-shot, walk-through-the-warehouse content.

GA4 reports $329K in revenue vs $387K across platform-reported numbers — a $58K discrepancy. This is expected: (1) Meta's 7-day view-through window claims conversions that occur outside a session (no GA4 event fired), (2) Amazon transactions don't pass back to GA4, (3) iOS 14.5+ limits Meta pixel tracking for ~38% of iOS traffic. The GA4 number is the most conservative (click-based) attribution. The email channel is the highest CVR channel at 4.21% despite receiving zero paid spend — indicating a high-intent audience that should be grown through list acquisition campaigns. The homepage has a 51% bounce rate from paid traffic — a landing page optimization priority.

The data-driven model is the recommended attribution standard for Baz Bros. Key rationale: (1) Meta's influence is structurally undervalued by last-click — 62% of Google conversions passed through a Meta touchpoint first, (2) Amazon is a closed ecosystem and should be measured independently with TACOS, not cross-channel attribution, (3) Direct traffic at 14.8K sessions likely contains misattributed paid social (iOS traffic with no click ID). Implementing UTM enforcement on all paid links + GA4 data-driven attribution will reduce reported ROAS for Google by ~18% while more accurately reflecting Meta's role in the funnel. Budget reallocation should follow.

Path #1 is the dominant pattern: Meta discovers → Google Brand converts. This explains why last-click over-credits Google. Path #3 reveals a 7.4-day consideration cycle for customers who need two Meta exposures before converting via Shopping — a strong case for extending the Meta retargeting window from 7 to 14 days. Path #5 shows the longest consideration cycle (12.8 days, 4 touchpoints) but represents your highest-complexity buyer — likely a wholesale buyer evaluating multiple suppliers. Email functions as a critical mid-path nurture signal in this segment.

This attribution framework was designed and built by Kriti Singhal (CRM Media Analyst, joined Baz Bros July 2025). Q1 2026 figures are forward projections modeled from H2 2025 actuals using channel-level growth rates, seasonal indices from prior years, and spend trajectory confirmed with the paid media team in Dec 2025. The attribution model logic, channel overlap matrix, and path analysis methodology reflect infrastructure put in place between Jul–Dec 2025.

Under last-click attribution, Google Ads appears to deliver $148K of $387K projected revenue (38%). Under data-driven attribution, that drops to $114K (29%) — a $34K overstatement. This pattern was identified in H2 2025 actuals and is projected to persist into Q1 2026 without intervention. The fix: implement GA4 data-driven attribution as the reporting standard, enforce UTM parameters on all paid creative, and reduce Google Brand bid caps by 15-20% to test demand elasticity without incremental Meta investment.

Channel overlap analysis confirms Amazon touchpoints appear in only 8-12% of cross-channel conversion paths — Amazon buyers rarely engage with Google or Meta ads in the same path. Amazon should be treated as a separate P&L with TACOS (14.2%) as the primary efficiency metric, not included in blended ROAS calculations. This also means Amazon ad budget decisions should not be made in reference to Google/Meta performance — they serve distinct buyer behaviors (convenience + price comparison vs brand discovery).

Email delivers a 4.21% CVR — the highest of any channel — and appears as a mid-path assist in 12.8-day consideration paths. It receives zero paid acquisition spend yet contributes $28-38K in attributed revenue depending on the model. Baz Bros should invest in list growth: a Meta Lead Gen campaign targeting vintage fashion buyers at a $5 CPL would generate ~1,000 new subscribers/month at $5K spend, with estimated 6-month email LTV of $48+ per subscriber based on current email CVR and AOV.